Methodology

Four kinds of writing

Every post is one of four types, shown at the top of the page.

• News: significant economic and market developments: what was reported, why it matters and what remains uncertain.
• Economic Outlook: forecasts with a stated time horizon, explicit assumptions, alternative scenarios and the evidence that would change the outlook.
• Opinion: clearly labeled arguments about markets, policy and investing, with the reasoning and sources shown.
• Stock Report: company research covering the thesis, the evidence, valuation assumptions, catalysts, risks and what would invalidate the thesis.

Facts, interpretation and forecasts

Within each article, passages are marked with one of three labels, so a reader always knows what kind of statement they are reading.

Reported facts

Information published by a company, government agency, exchange or other primary source, linked to the original where one is available.

Interpretation

The author's analysis of what the facts mean. Reasonable readers may disagree.

Forecast

An expectation about the future, always with a time horizon and the assumptions behind it.

What every Stock Report contains

1. The company and its ticker: what the business does and how it makes money.
2. The thesis, stated plainly.
3. The evidence, with links to original sources.
4. Valuation assumptions: the method and inputs behind any price target.
5. Catalysts: events that could test the thesis, with expected timing.
6. Risks: what could go wrong, and how much it would matter.
7. What would invalidate the thesis: specific evidence that would change the view.
8. Disclosures relevant to the company.

Price targets

A price target is a forecast. Each one states its time horizon, the valuation method, the main inputs, and the share price and date it was measured from. A less favorable and a more favorable case are shown alongside the base case. A target is an estimate under stated assumptions, not a promise of where the shares will trade.

Economic forecasts

Each Economic Outlook states its time horizon and assumptions, sets out at least one alternative scenario, and names the evidence that would change the outlook.

Figures, tables and sources

Every table and chart states its source, its units and the date the data was current. Original sources are linked where available. Gains and losses are never shown by color alone: they carry a sign and an arrow. Data and citations are never invented; a figure that cannot be verified is not published.

Updates and corrections

When a view changes, the update is added to the article with its own date, and the article's "Updated" date changes to match. The original forecast, price target and reasoning stay on the page as first published, so readers can judge the record.

[Corrections policy to confirm: how factual errors are corrected and how corrections are noted.]

Disclosures

Positions, sponsorships and conflicts relevant to an article are disclosed in that article. The full policy is on the disclosures page.